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Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Confidence in Spanish bailout plummets


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 SPAIN’S BORROWING costs spiked to a euro-era record amid doubt over Europe’s bailout for the country and uncertainty over the outlook for the rerun of the Greek election on Sunday. As officials said the possibility of capital and border controls to quell any post-election bank run in Greece was under examination, the euro declined and Italian borrowing costs came under yet more pressure. The interest rate on Spanish 10-year debt reached 6.83 per cent and the rate on comparable Italian debt edged further beyond the critical 6 per cent level to reach 6.3 per cent before easing back to 6.17 per cent. Although Spain is obliged under its bailout to continue raising debt in regular markets for day-to-day purposes, the current interest rates are very near levels considered unsustainable. EU officials still argue that turmoil is inevitable in the run-up to the Greek poll and in its immediate aftermath. However, any failure to arrest the pressure would leave Madrid running the risk of having to seek a full-blown bailout later this year. Declining confidence in the Spanish plan, agreed only last Saturday, came as Italy criticised Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter for suggesting that Rome would soon follow Madrid in seeking external aid. “Italy has to work its way out of its economic dilemma of very high deficits and debt, but of course it may be that, given the high rates Italy pays to refinance on markets, they too will need support,” Ms Fekter told Austrian television on Monday night. Although she backtracked yesterday, Italian technocrat prime minister Mario Monti said her remarks were “entirely inappropriate”. European officials castigated Ms Fekter, saying open speculation of this nature by a finance minister called into question her political judgment. In Brussels, the European Commission acknowledged it gave legal assistance to finance ministry officials who are examining contingencies for a possible Greek exit from the euro. The commission insisted, however, that no plans were in train for Greece to leave the currency and expected Greece to stay. “Some people are working on scenarios. We are providing information about EU law as guardian of the treaties,” a commission spokesman said. He was responding to a Reuters report which said finance officials have examined limiting the size of ATM withdrawals, imposing border checks and introducing euro zone capital controls in case Greece leaves. “I’ve not said I’m not aware about any discussions. I’ve said I’m not aware about any plans, which is a slight difference,” the commission spokesman said. EU law allows for the introduction of capital controls for public safety or security reasons but not for economic reasons, he said. It is understood that a member state does not need the approval of other European countries to impose restrictions on capital movements between the member state and other EU states. However, approval is required for any restriction on capital movements to any non-EU country. Commission chief José Manuel Barroso said yesterday that an EU banking union with a pan-European deposit guarantee was feasible as soon as next year. The European Central Bank backed this initiative, saying developments in recent weeks underscored the need for concerted efforts by governments to halt the turmoil. The ECB said there was need for a banking union involving tougher euro zone banking supervisions, a European deposit guarantee scheme and minimal risks for taxpayers through adequate bank sector contributions. In a new report, the ECB said such a union would also involve “breaking the link between banks and sovereigns” but did not specify how. This is generally understood to embrace direct European aid for banks without burdening the debt of member states. The Government hoped any such move in the Spanish bailout would create a precedent for Ireland but Germany rejected Spanish pleas to go down that road. Spain’s El Mundo reported the country’s economics minister warned his euro zone counterparts during a teleconference last Saturday that refusal to support Madrid’s demands could bring down Italy. “If you want to force a full rescue of Spain, then get €500 billion ready – and then another €700 billion for Italy, which will have to be rescued after us,” Luis de Guindos reportedly said. The paper also cited text messages to Mr de Guindos in which prime minister Mariano Rajoy urged him to adopt a tough stance in the talks. “Hold out. We are the fourth economic power in Europe. Spain is not Uganda,” Mr Rajoy is reported to have said.


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